Florida!
Okay, so basically my predictions for the Republican Presidential nominee were spot-on, the last two men standing would be Gov. Mitt Romney and a liberal. Swap Sen. John McCain for Mayor Giuliani in all my prior predictions and I have it ZACKlyRight. Nobody had it as I had it on December 14, 2007. Sure it’s easy for the pundits to call it now when there are only two left!
But, what else did Florida tell us about the Republicans? Well, here are some tid-bits from the exit polls.
Of those who self-identified as a Republican (80% of those who voted), Gov. Romney and Sen. McCain each earned the support of 33%. Of those who self-identified as Independent or something else (17%), Sen. McCain crushed Gov. Romney by 44% to 23%/ And, in the CLOSED Republican primary in Florida, 3% of those who voted claimed to be Democrats; the exit polls do not tell us who earned the most votes from this group but I’m sure it was not Gov. Romney.
Of those who self-identified as Conservative (61% of those who voted), Gov. Romney crushed Sen. McCain, 37% to 29%. Of those who self-identified as Moderate (28%), Sen. McCain crushed Gov. Romney, 43% to 21%. Finally, in the CLOSED Republican primary in Florida, 11% of those who voted and self-identified as Liberal, they voted for Sen. McCain 49% to 24% over Gov. Romney.
I still think Gov. Romney is going to win the nomination and be the next President of the United States. In tonight's debate he will hammer and hammer that he is the more Reaganesque candidate. I put the over/under on Reagan references tonight at 56 1/2.
Obviously, if Gov. Huckabee took his cue to leave and he endorsed his more ideological soul-mate, Gov. Romney, it would be a decent off-set to Mayor Giuliani endorsing Sen. McCain, if that, is in fact, what the Mayor does tonight.
Oh, Senator Thompson, where the heck is your Gov. Romney endorsement?
Okay, so basically my predictions for the Republican Presidential nominee were spot-on, the last two men standing would be Gov. Mitt Romney and a liberal. Swap Sen. John McCain for Mayor Giuliani in all my prior predictions and I have it ZACKlyRight. Nobody had it as I had it on December 14, 2007. Sure it’s easy for the pundits to call it now when there are only two left!
But, what else did Florida tell us about the Republicans? Well, here are some tid-bits from the exit polls.
Of those who self-identified as a Republican (80% of those who voted), Gov. Romney and Sen. McCain each earned the support of 33%. Of those who self-identified as Independent or something else (17%), Sen. McCain crushed Gov. Romney by 44% to 23%/ And, in the CLOSED Republican primary in Florida, 3% of those who voted claimed to be Democrats; the exit polls do not tell us who earned the most votes from this group but I’m sure it was not Gov. Romney.
Of those who self-identified as Conservative (61% of those who voted), Gov. Romney crushed Sen. McCain, 37% to 29%. Of those who self-identified as Moderate (28%), Sen. McCain crushed Gov. Romney, 43% to 21%. Finally, in the CLOSED Republican primary in Florida, 11% of those who voted and self-identified as Liberal, they voted for Sen. McCain 49% to 24% over Gov. Romney.
I still think Gov. Romney is going to win the nomination and be the next President of the United States. In tonight's debate he will hammer and hammer that he is the more Reaganesque candidate. I put the over/under on Reagan references tonight at 56 1/2.
Obviously, if Gov. Huckabee took his cue to leave and he endorsed his more ideological soul-mate, Gov. Romney, it would be a decent off-set to Mayor Giuliani endorsing Sen. McCain, if that, is in fact, what the Mayor does tonight.
Oh, Senator Thompson, where the heck is your Gov. Romney endorsement?
posted by Zack at 4:52 PM
12 Comments:
It's 9:36 pm Eastern, January 30, 2008 and I just finished watching the Republican Presidential candidates debate for 90 minutes.
In descending order of performance the top three candidates were:
3. Sen. Fred Thompson
2. Rep. Duncan Hunter
1. Gov. Mitt Romney
President Reagan was mentioned about three thousand times so I obviously set the over/under line way too low.
Surely you jest in trying to convince the masses about your predictive powers.
The basic flaw in your theory -- that Romney will win because as other Republicans drop out they'll endorse and their followers will vote for the candidate with the next closest views -- is that you're dealing with politicians. Politicians want to be associated with whoever they think is going to win. So, Guiliani's endorsement of McCain is more a reflection of who he thinks will get the nomination than he thinks would most closely parallel his own views, because that is the way to best position himself politically for the future. It is why I have an aversion to politicians and hate politics.
Also, pointing out that Romney can win the hearts of staunch conservatives while McCain has broader appeal is an argument that those of your ilk should be beating the bushes for McCain, as in today's political climate and mood, a candidate with broader appeal particularly with independents has a far better chance to keep the Democrats out of the White House than a candidate seen as staunchly conservative.
In light of my aversion to politics, I invite you to stop wasting your time down in the muck, and move on to more significant issues of good vs. evil -- like reveling in the Bosox vanquishing of the Evil Empire. Of course, for the Super Bowl, there is nothing good that can come of it, as it pits evil vs. evil -- I liken it to having a Presidential election pitting Bill v. Hillary, who do I dislike more? How could I possibly vote for either one? I'm rooting for a 7-3 victory by the Pats -- with the Giants winning 3-0 and Eli fumbling or throwing an interception with less than two minutes left that gets returned for a touchdown. In other words, a humiliating defeat for the Giants and a game in which the Pats do nothing to distinguish themselves.
Conscience,
Long ago I wrote that supporters of a candidate will move to Gov. Romney as their preferred candidate drops out (Dec. 14). My corollary (Jan. 12) was the candidates themselves would endorse Gov. Romney. I've been proven right about the supporters; Republicans and Conservatives have flocked to the only true conservative left in the race. I'm hopeful that the Republicans in 20 - 22 states will respond in the very predictable similar fashion. Gov. Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. Any Republican who watched last night's debate knows Sen. McCain's shallow knowledge of every single topic makes him no match for the Democratic Party's nominee.
sadly, my prediction will carry the day...for the masses I shall restate it:
Governor Romney, though the most qualified, will not be elected President because Americans, like the rest of the animal kingdom are bigots. Yes, that's right...we're no different than the French who profess "liberalism" and equality while French citizens who pray to a different God and have skin that's a little darker than the classic pasty white you'd expect are treated as second class citizens. More specifically, the ignorant masses have a perception of what a Mormon is and are not comfortable. It (bigotry) is the same reason Senator Obama will not be elected President. It pains me to write (think) this, but history has proved that people don't like people who are different than them. Whether the difference is real or perceived is of little import. Its a rule of the universe, like the sun rising in the east. "Republicans" will hide behind the premise that Mitt is "buying" the election even though John McCain is the seventh richest Senator, or John Kerry financed his campaign with ketchup $$. They'll say McCain has broader appeal, even though he's really not appealing to Republicans. In the end its all just rationalizing away our inner beliefs. You know the ones we're most uncomfortable with. The ones that are the antithesis of what we profess to teach (and want) for our children. You know, that everyone's equal, everyone's smart, everyone deserves a fair shot. Yea those. What we were taught, and what we are really teaching our kids at home, in school, and in church (or temple) is all those things, as long as "everyone" is like us. We have fancy words for it today like culture. That's good. Blacks have it, so do Latinos. But white males don't. We have words like bigot or racist. That's bad. Whites are bigots or racists when they have a badge and pull over a car driving erratically. When blacks vote black they're not bigots or racists though. In the end all its really about is "who is most like me." Just the way we're wired.
Hardball,
I appreciate the post and I agree with much of it.
I will be writing alot about race and gender and religion between now and November. I hope others join you in trying to "discuss" these issues.
I actually have a post in draft devoted to sexism; maybe I'll get to post it early next week.
Please know, though, that I think Mormons who vote for Gov. Romney for the deciding reason he is a Mormon are no better than whites voting for whites, blacks voting for blacks, boys voting for boys, girls voting for girls or evangelical Christians voting for Gov. Huckabee or Jews voting for Sen. Lieberman. I will write (and I may need to put this in a post and not a comment for comments may get less visibility) that from everything I've read, and I have read a TON, Mormonism is not getting the defense from the liberal media establishment that race, gender or other religions get. My read is that the liberal media establishment respects people might have justifiable concerns with Mormonism. This is outrageous. If I were a Mormon, and because I'm a human being with defensive emotions, if a Mormon was being unfairly attacked (or not properly defended), I would feel justified in supporting the Mormon for the very same but opposite reason: the attacks were religion-based, I have no choice to defend based on religion.
Conscience,
On January 30, I wrote, "Obviously, if Gov. Huckabee took his cue to leave and he endorsed his more ideological soul-mate, Gov. Romney, it would be a decent off-set to Mayor Giuliani endorsing Sen. McCain, if that, is in fact, what the Mayor does tonight."
In the three days since those words, everyone is writing how Gov. Huckabee is syphoning votes off Gov. Romney to Sen. McCain's benefit. Yes, it's obvious now but I was writing it first.
Eight years ago I wrote that Gov. Tom Ridge (R, PA) would be the next Vice President of the United States. Through the Bush Administration I wrote it several more times. Gov. Tom Ridge was Sen. McCains national co-chair in the Presidential exploratory days. IF Sen. McCain is the nominee, there is a very good chance I will be proved ZACKlyRight about another prediction. As I've written a thousand times, there is NO electoral math that will give the Democrats a victory in November if the Republicans win Pennsylvania.
This is how Michael Kranish of the Boston Globe started his FEBRUARY 2, 2008 piece in the Boston Globe TODAY:
"As Mitt Romney prepared this week to enter the Super Tuesday contests, he declared confidently that "'in a two-person race, I like my chances.'"
"But the problem with Romney's assertion is evident in the South. Romney is not just facing John McCain, but Mike Huckabee, who is running strongly in polls in the four Southern states voting Tuesday, where he has his biggest base of evangelical support.
"The Huckabee factor may be getting relatively little attention nationally (BUT NOT MONTHS AGO AS WRITTEN AT ZACKLYRIGHT) in the Republican nomination battle because the former Arkansas governor has failed to repeat his Iowa victory. But in a region that has equal or greater evangelical strength than Iowa, Huckabee may become the decisive factor - at Romney's expense.
"Voters identifying themselves as evangelicals and Christian conservatives could make up more than half of the Republican electorate in the four Southern states voting Tuesday, analysts said. The contests - out of 21 across the country - are being held in Huckabee's home state of Arkansas as well as Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.
"One of Romney's most prominent supporters in Atlanta said in an interview yesterday Romney must peel away Huckabee backers in order to win in the South.
"Our challenge is to get the Huckabee people to defect before next Tuesday," said US Representative Jack Kingston of Georgia. "One of our big obstacles right now is we are splitting votes with Huckabee. It is very frustrating."
"The frustration is even greater, Kingston said, because McCain has benefited from Rudy Giuliani's decision earlier this week to drop out of the race, picking up more moderate voters, while Romney is still battling for evangelical conservatives who have been allied with Huckabee.
"Huckabee's presence in the race hurts Romney a lot more than it hurts McCain because I think that Romney would be the second choice of the majority of evangelicals who are going to vote for Huckabee," said Richard Land, president of the Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission, the public policy agency of the Southern Baptist Convention.
Hmmm ... Declare Romney will win; declare Romney is in trouble because Huckabee's taking his votes; declare Ridge will be McCain's running mate, etc. ... make enough predictions covering every scenario, anyone can be Zacklyright -- after all, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. How's that Republican Congress has been doing since the last election?
I sure hope you've picked the Giants tonight, because as much as I dislike the Pats, I like the Giants even less. Or, perhaps on an alternate blog, you've predicted the Giants to win, unless Eli chokes on the bit and throws three interceptions, because the Giants will get pressure on Brady, unless Maroney has a big day on the ground, but that Plaxico end up eating his words, unless the corners play off and give him room to maneuver, in which case Eli will have a field day, unless he gags the bit ...
Conscience,
Readers of this space can decide for themselves if my December 14, 2007 post, four weeks before any vote was cast, was right-on or not.
Gov. Romney is going to win the Maine caucuses this weekend; with about 55% of the vote in, he's got 52% of the vote. Sen. McCain trails badly with 22% of the vote. Obviously this caucus doesn't count because Gov. Romney won it.
But enough about whether my predictions are 85% accurate or 90% accurate, have you really no opinion on my posts about race? Will you dare express an opinion on the roll sexism is playing in this contest? Religious bigotry?
Your last few comments have been well below the standards of my Conscience.
zackass,
you're not even close to 85%
go hillary!
Sorry if recent posts disappoint -- have been in a dyspeptic mood as a result of my disdain for the combatants in yesterday's Super Bowl and largely have just been trying to bust your chops a bit, while expressing my disdain for politics -- though I do think you go a bit overboard with the self-congratulation, understanding that it's done to be provocative.
As for comments on race, I broadly agree with the notion that we will not end racial discrimination until we stop discriminating based on race, and agree that a white person who votes for a white candidate against a black candidate based on their race is racist but no more so than a black person who votes for a black candidate based on race. That said, I don't think the statistics you cite necessarily mean that either side is acting racist. I think people are more likely to vote for someone they feel understands and cares about their situation, and with whom they feel an affinity. So, I would expect black people to be more inclined to vote for a black candidate for understandable and justified reason other than because they are racist. I think this has more of an impact for smaller, identifiable groups that may have a common bond or understanding that ties them together. Therefore, I think that this applies less generally with a white voter, because the number of white people in our country is so much higher and potentially diverse. So, for example, you obviously have an affinity for those who have served their country in the military, and therefore are more likely to vote for someone with a distinguished military record than one without (your views on Kerry and McCain show that this is not always the determining factor).
I have somewhat similar views on so-called religious bigotry. I think people are naturally inclined to vote for people of their own religion because it is one way to measure the extent to which the candidate shares their fundamental values and beliefs. That said, I do think it's objectionable to use that as the sole basis for a choice, or to use aspects of a person's religious beliefs that don't have an impact on the issues they'll be facing to be a deciding factor.
Conscience,
Great post, thank you.
Now back to the jousting, WAY back on January 4 and 6 I was writing about an anti-Romney under-current; that now seems to be a theme picked-up nationally.
Finally, should I let you know when a mainstream news organization starts educating us on a brokered convention or do you want to let me know when my January 21, 2008 post smacks of prescience?
4:52 pm 2/4/08
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