Quick Iowa Analysis
I picked Sen. Hillary Clinton to finish third and she did! ZACKlyRight again! Okay, I’m just kidding. Like I wrote last night, there would be no bragging if my explanation didn’t also carry the day. Based on all the entrance polling that took place, it looks like Gov. Huckabee had his votes in the bag when voters walked into the caucuses.
But let’s skip past the predictions. Let’s examine one thing that Iowa definitely told us: that Gov. Mike Huckabee will not be the Republican Presidential nominee.
To the entrance poll question, courtesy of FoxNews.com, Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian, a full 60% answered, “yes”. Of these folks, 46% voted for Gov. Huckabee. Gov. Romney was second at 19% with Sen. Thompson trailing in third at 11%. Of the 40% who answered the question, “no”, 33% voted for Gov. Romney while Sen. McCain garnered 18% and Gov. Huckabee 14%. In no other state primary will Gov. Huckabee be judged by so many evangelical Christians. He has had his best day. He will not leave the race. And, not too long ago I predicted he’d make the final three and I stand by that, but he will not win the nomination.
To the entrance poll question, “How much does it matter to you that a candidate shares your religious beliefs, 36% answered, “A Great Deal”. Of these (religious bigots), Gov. Huckabee grabbed 56% support. Gov. Romney and Sens. McCain and Thompson all tied at 11%. Moving down the other three answers, “Somewhat”, “Not Much”, and “Not at All”, Gov. Huckabee’s support fell to 30%, 15% and 5%, respectively. Meanwhile, Gov. Romney’s support grew to 26%, 38% and 40%, respectively. Again, Gov. Huckabee has had his best day.
I did not see anything last night to make me reconsider my prediction that Gov. Romney will be the Republican nominee and the next President of the United States.
I did hear some commentary by conservative pundits that startled me for it's heavy anti-Romney slant. I'll keep my ears open during the New Hampshire coverage to see if there is some ugly undertone brewing. I'm not prepared to indict anyone yet.
On the Democratic side, great showing by a man who has been a United States Senator for three years. Yup, those Iowans can sure identify the qualified.
I picked Sen. Hillary Clinton to finish third and she did! ZACKlyRight again! Okay, I’m just kidding. Like I wrote last night, there would be no bragging if my explanation didn’t also carry the day. Based on all the entrance polling that took place, it looks like Gov. Huckabee had his votes in the bag when voters walked into the caucuses.
But let’s skip past the predictions. Let’s examine one thing that Iowa definitely told us: that Gov. Mike Huckabee will not be the Republican Presidential nominee.
To the entrance poll question, courtesy of FoxNews.com, Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian, a full 60% answered, “yes”. Of these folks, 46% voted for Gov. Huckabee. Gov. Romney was second at 19% with Sen. Thompson trailing in third at 11%. Of the 40% who answered the question, “no”, 33% voted for Gov. Romney while Sen. McCain garnered 18% and Gov. Huckabee 14%. In no other state primary will Gov. Huckabee be judged by so many evangelical Christians. He has had his best day. He will not leave the race. And, not too long ago I predicted he’d make the final three and I stand by that, but he will not win the nomination.
To the entrance poll question, “How much does it matter to you that a candidate shares your religious beliefs, 36% answered, “A Great Deal”. Of these (religious bigots), Gov. Huckabee grabbed 56% support. Gov. Romney and Sens. McCain and Thompson all tied at 11%. Moving down the other three answers, “Somewhat”, “Not Much”, and “Not at All”, Gov. Huckabee’s support fell to 30%, 15% and 5%, respectively. Meanwhile, Gov. Romney’s support grew to 26%, 38% and 40%, respectively. Again, Gov. Huckabee has had his best day.
I did not see anything last night to make me reconsider my prediction that Gov. Romney will be the Republican nominee and the next President of the United States.
I did hear some commentary by conservative pundits that startled me for it's heavy anti-Romney slant. I'll keep my ears open during the New Hampshire coverage to see if there is some ugly undertone brewing. I'm not prepared to indict anyone yet.
On the Democratic side, great showing by a man who has been a United States Senator for three years. Yup, those Iowans can sure identify the qualified.
posted by Zack at 4:51 PM
1 Comments:
great use of language...fourth paragraph from the bottom--"religious bigots". RIGHT ON the money!! Romney is THE most qualified person to be president, Republican, Democrat, or Independent. The only thing standing in his way is bigotry. I'm not sure he can overcome that. I hope I'm wrong. The fact is there are more than small pockets in his way. The (bitter) irony, of course, is the so-called Christians who profess tolerance really are only tolerant of their own kind...textbook bigotry!
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