President Mitt Romney

I apologize in advance if this is not the tightest post I’ve ever produced; my intention is to be on record at the expense of fully explaining myself; if anyone needs any clarification, please ask and I'll answer.

Today, Friday, December 14, I was a caller on a local talk radio show. The host is Mr. Jay Severin of 96.9 WTKK. He’s a nationally recognized personality; he was on the Mr. J. Don Imus show either this morning or yesterday morning.

Anyway, the opinion I shared on the radio today is the basis of this post.

I am standing by my much earlier prediction that the next President of the United States of America is going to be Gov. Mitt Romney (R, MA and MI).

Before we get to why I think Gov. Romney will be the next President, let me also add that who ever the Republicans nominate will definitely beat who ever the Democrats nominate. Anyone quoting any “national” poll that shows a Democrat beating a Republican in a hypothetical match-up is wasting their time; if we had a national election those polls might mean something to me on December 14, 2007. We don’t so they don’t.

The reason why Gov. Romney is going to get the Republican nomination, and therefore be elected President, is because he will gain the most as we move through the primary process and the second and third tier candidates start to lose their support (the bold is my original idea; I have not read or heard anyone else say this; it's what makes me ZACKlyRight).

For example, Rep. Duncan Hunter is my guy. He, unfortunately, will be the next person to drop out of the race; he’s just looking for a reason to tell his supporters that he’s dropping his bid. This will come a day or two after the New Hampshire primary. Well, all of Rep. Hunter’s supporters are now going to have to find a new candidate. I think Gov. Romney will get more of Rep. Hunter’s supporters than anyone else.

And the process will continue.

Rep. Paul and Sen. Thompson and one or two of the others will remain on the ballot for the entire primary season but the supporters of all of these candidates living in yet-to-be-had-primary-states will start to look for a replacement candidate as soon as they recognize their guy is not going to get the nomination. I think Gov. Romney will benefit the most as each candidate loses their base; I think Gov. Romney is the most believable and attractive conservative in the group. Ask yourself, who turns out to vote in Republican primaries? Mayor Giuliani supporters? I don’t think so.

In descending order, the order that supporters of the major candidates will bail on their first choice is:
6. Sen. Fred Thompson
5. Rep. Ron Paul (he should be before Sen. Thompson in the real world but his supporters are probably the most dedicated of all the candidate’s supporters so they’ll be a little slow in accepting reality)
4. Sen. John McCain

This will leave three major candidates deep into the nominating process: Gov. Mike Huckabee, Mayor Giuliani and the Nominee.

3. Gov. Mike Huckabee will be the second to last to drop out of contention; he will have ridden his conservative evangelical appeal as far as he could; he just won’t be able to convince those voters deciding on national security that he’s the guy.

Of Mayor Giuliani and Gov. Romney, Gov. Romney is clearly the more conservative of the two and he will be the nominee of the Republican Party.

I can see no path to the nomination for anyone other than Gov. Romney or Mayor Giuliani (I’m not hedging, I’m just noting the only way I can be wrong about Gov. Romney).

Either one of these candidates will defeat the Democratic Party’s nominee, even if Vice President Al Gore enters the fray to “save” his Party and he wins the nomination.