Quick Iowa Predictions

There will be nothing to brag about unless my underlying explanation is also correct.

I think the order of finish for the Democrats in Iowa this evening will be:

1. John Edwards
2. Barack Obama
3. Hillary Clinton

No other Democrat carries 15%.

As the four lesser candidates (Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Richardson) get less than 15% at each caucus site and the candidate's supporters are asked to join a surviving candidate's group, I think these supporters will join John Edwards' group in greater numbers than they will join Sens. Clinton and Obama's groups.

I think the order of finish for the Republicans will be:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Mike Huckabee
3. John McCain

No other Republican carries 15%.

For the exact same reason as the Democrats: As the three (Giuliani, Hunter and Thompson) other (note I didn't write lesser) Republican candidates are dropped at each caucus site because they didn't muster 15% and their supporters are forced to join another candidate's group, I think Gov. Romney picks up more of these voters than the other guys. I think Gov. Romney may exceed 40%.

Let's go watch and find out.